Read this: Radio predictions 2020 with James Cridland

The radiated a program with broadcast bionics discover the world leading brands at radio Harlow and Stuart Clarkson welcome to our final radio Today programme for 2019 what a year it's been as you can hear I got the pre-christmas man flu, so I think I'm going to leave a lot of the talking this week to my guests at Royal Martin is here founder and editor of radiotoday.

Hello Roy you sound terrible every week.

Yes alright.

Nothing to do with James cridland this with as well all the way from Brisbane Australia radio consultant and futurologist hello James yes, I'm here as well expert future hopefully going to predict 2024 us and what's going to happen, but I guess I suppose the only way to work out where you're going is knowing where you've been so let's look at 2019 first.

It's been a particularly busy.

Roy do you want to start? What's what's been the highlight of 2019? What were the big things that was kind of stations getting bought programmes getting dropped global start with Global survey rolled out their national brands of another national brands the national breakfast shows for Capital and Harvey also said they were going to do a national breakfast up a smooth change the mine.

So they did a national at drivetime shop that was major news not to mention the hundreds of people who on the research stations.

I don't even notice but we got LBC News we got heart 70s and 90s dance capital Xtra Reloaded we got Smooth country.

We got Smooth chill.

A real gold they rolled out Capital to new places like Lancashire and parts of the Midlands Bob FM became hard connect became smooth, should we go on it? Just been on fire after this year.

Yeah, and it's been this kind of global vs.

Bauer we've talked about on the podcast.

Can I hold my beer they've done that look let's get on with some to compete went shopping didn't know they got like an Amazon Prime account and bought for radio groups within the space of a month so that you can buy D-Link cellular and wireless of course we're still waiting to complete their launch Greatest Hits radio.

They launched scholar with Mayo at country Hits radio at magic at the musicals.

They've got a new breakfast show on hits which I asked why they got they close the Viking FM Studios move that to Sheffield they got a new breakfast on kiss and kisses on fire Absolute Radio changing all the time that.

Show is now on the decade stations if a launch absolute tens and loads of things going on little bits and pieces all over the place like night owls going from throw and the network shows across the West Midlands as well, so so Bauer also had a busy yeah, and I think our next year.

We'll have more going on than even this year possibly maybe James what do you think I was going to do next year James James his predictions for mastery only picked out a couple of these things but even a great future like James might not have seen the purchase of 4 groups and all the stuff at global and our last year.

Is this what you thought would happen this year now.

I think that was absolutely fascinating and I think you know power going out and buying all kinds of things that rhyme mentions Amazon Prime and that is absolutely correct because we're still waiting for we're still waiting to get some of these things that power of actually bought so you.

Hopefully, we'll actually get those in the next year but I mean to me.

I think the real difference has been global has been buying things with a really clear strategy will buy this will turn into radio station and you pretty well known exactly what global is going to end up doing with our it's been you know buying stuff launching new random radio stations not really tidying up the current estate that they currently have I still scratch my head with the existence of Planet Rock and Absolute Radio classic rock surely one of those exist now, so actually looking at all of this.

You know global is very clearly.

We've got a strategy without we're going to stick to it and I kind of think that we're still waiting to find out that was plan is we saw News UK get a checkbook out obviously with with wireless cover years ago and bought their national stations and bought the local once they have sold the local ones.

Still at massive investment going into international stations with talk radio that could be changing next year as well and obviously we saw Chris Evans start on Virgin this year as well.

Yeah, I think it's nice and I wonder how much of that is in a management womb of would like to own some radio stations with love Chris Evans will have him to and how much of that is actually you know how can we make a lot of money out of this and you know the right there are cheaper ways of buying national stations than you know going out and buying an entire group, but I think you know fascinating to actually see slightly disappointing seeing how Evans has done potentially but you know we'll see what happens Virgin name has a has a good history to it.

I guess a lot going on at BBC over the last year as well Royd changes presented here and there Vancouver is going to be leaving radio one as well, so another.

Shift 4 Radio 1 for hats drop of course all the new presenters of over 30% is given to go over Christmas so I'd like to help a handful of those will make it to the schedule and even for occasional shows at next year so I will look forward to that in the new yet different things going on at BBC S5 radio concerned in 2019 Zoe Ball of course started on breakfast seems like ages ago now at Sara Cox start some driving course Andover Radio 4 John Humphrys left and Lauren Laverne replaced Kirsty Young on Desert Island Discs Lauren Laverne yourself getting a new breakfast of course and Chris Mason your friend Stuart replaced David Dimbleby on any questions and loads going on 5 Live Remember The Danny Baker incidents only this year Phil Williams of course left.

Turn on the BBC as well and we'll talk about platforms this week and move forward James but there was a thing with the BBC this year of them kind of tightening up everything and taking stations off TuneIn which upset a lot.

I know you talked to quite a lot about in your coverage.

Yeah, I think so yeah.

It was very strange actually with the you know that with the general election recently of being able to consume Sky News really easily ITV News really doing the TV stuff which was brilliantly darling very very smart the BBC's that was really hard and it occurs to me that the public service broadcaster probably think about serving the public some points rather than trying to force everybody to use the BBC Sounds app if you can download that which I can't or you know all.

BBC website and all that kind of thing it it seems to me to be a strange plan to to try and pull people away from that, but you know there is a you know a brighter idea there in terms of making sure that the data is right making sure that they can actually correctly use the amount of information that they get from people to produce smarter shows in the future who knows what you mentioned at this point.

We should say cos it was only last week congratulations and this is kind of political affiliations to one side of course but congratulate and recognise their achievement Simon Japan Andy Carter to former radio people now sitting MPs in the House of Commons Simon's the MP for Devon East used to work at some BBC and PlayStations is the presenter and Andy now MP for Warrington South started out as a journalist.

I think it Trax FM worked his way up to BPD and then managing director of fuel stations and the gym.

Group in the end as well and I know you knew only quite well when you worked with him.

He was my not my Direct boss, but the MD of the building hours in so I had some good good times with his Laser House in Manchester and I said to him because I had a few jingles in my childhood and there was one that said hospital radio Castle me with call Andy Cartwright something like that things cool Andy Carter that I've got stuck in my head everytime.

I see you.

I was mine.

It was actually quite clearly a bit of a single fan as well as MP for Warrington South now, so we are well done.

Well done to radio centres Mark Barber as well.

Who is standing for election as an independent candidate got 157 votes.

I seem to remember which is interesting to 222 AC so it just

Show that actually don't necessarily needs needs to be one of the big parties to actually you know stand and make a point so so well done to him and I would guess count others who also tasted absolutely right with this weekend to 20/20 a bit then and if that would probably should start with Politics of it all because it's a couple of years ago now the government wants to get rid of rats in radio all together so stations could kind of Flip music formats overnight without asking Ofcom drop all the local programs the changes that we've now got came about because I did what they could with the existing patient now.

We've got a government here in the UK with a majority of 80 seats they can pretty much do what they want.

They bring this back and scrap everything and so let's get rid of all regulation.

I think it's going to be very interesting.

I mean the government of made.

You know quite a lot of views at known about how the media has worked anyway, and yes, it will be interesting.

Whether or not they will be relaxing the rules yet further.

I think many would probably argue that the rules of being relaxed quite enough.

Thank you very much, but you know who knows what the future might actually might actually hold there and you can certainly see that as we move away from from Europe as well.

That will obviously have the changes to the pier landscape that we should probably be making that as well, but you seem a bit of this already with the radio station asking for format changes such as Jack in Oxford wanting to use station to Anerley station and also in Manchester we've got Alexis Manchester wanting to become a capital Xtra now that they're pretty big format flips, but they're being asked for they would still provide an alternative music station in the marketplace off times going to prove those so we're getting the format flips already.

I think I'm not sure how far away are we from stations.

Doing something like they do in America where they wake up one day and stop playing smooth jazz.

I think that's quite a long way off, but as far as format flips.

It's happening here and now you know we shouldn't forget that you know most people now have access to you.

No 30 or 40 music stations quite apart from Spotify and turn everything else as well, so actually the Uno format regulation doesn't seem to make an awful lot of sense now particular.

You know obviously when you have a look at the amount of national you know DAB services there.

So you know maybe this is one of those those things where you actually have a look at the amount of stations which are currently available and go you know what it won't make too much of a change of this radio station turns from being in the oldest to youngest off.

Obviously still sorting out their acquisitions will hopefully get some answers from the CMA the next 3 months or so, but it is there anything left to buy.

Anything else in 2020 radio at the km group in Scotland DC Thomson but I think they are looking to buy rather than sell but know that there's not that much and I believe I give you good price change not much if you I think you radio in Northern Ireland is a really in one and I'm very surprised that global haven't jumped and bought that because it does seem to be you know and an obvious one for something like hard already capital so now that's certainly worthwhile.

Having a look at but to me it does seem that all of the big groups and out as big as they will be and there's very few other things to actually go out and buy now.

The trend we saw towards the end of the year was stations being launched rather than buying them via weissbier country station when you can watch your own.

I guess you know DAB when it's very easy to launch a station in the UK at least you know that will clearly make make it less interesting to go I buy an FM station certainly other formats Road you think that the groups haven't got that.

They might launch.

I mean global don't have a sports station what they want to compete with five live sport and then talkSPORT I think we've got enough radio formats now.

I don't think sport will be necessarily global thinkers.

We got lost but now of course and if rumours are to believe we might get 5 Sport 5 news at some point in the future and but I think the future of radio groups launching these services will probably be on subjects for hobbies like fishing.

I think I mentioned previously.

Sparse format so I think I think we done are we done.

Yeah, I don't know about that.

I mean I think you know I mean clearly sport comes with an awful.

Lot of Rights headaches, which news doesn't particularly and the music coming obviously does come with the headaches but not that much you know I think it's interesting looking out the Australian landscape for example and seeing that there was a did fail, but there was a radio station called Talking lifestyle.

Just rubbish name for radio station, but the idea behind that was that it was a news source of TalkBack radio station, but didn't focus on news so focused on pretty well anything else and I think that there's probably quite a movement out there of have just had enough of news and would like something that is more than just music is you can get that everywhere but something which is a bit more interesting something about travel maybe.

About showbiz something which isn't you know non-stop brexit which will happen still on on the news station for the next three or 4 years so maybe they sing in terms of that sort of format and I think actually is quite a lot of interesting things that you can do with talk format possibly if it to talk format around hobbies and things that's called a podcast and there are plenty of them, but I think that you know maybe there are other things that you can actually have a look at and probably one of the things that I'm most excited about is the launch of the new station in Shaftesbury called Alfred which is a community Radio station which has absolutely no music on it at all.

It's plan and everything that is going to broadcast his speech from the area from the town of the Shaftesbury and I think that will be.

Interesting to watch because that's a very different way of making radio and a way that who knows might be quite successful and I supposed to drop in for 20 minutes half an hour here and so it doesn't matter if you're repeating a lot of that local content is it yeah indeed and I think that's something that every station knows is that actually you know we only spend 2025 30-minutes with a typical station, so that essentially means that out of a 24-hour day 23 hours is wasted.

So what could we do with that? Could we actually really Siri work? How we make radio in the future? It's something that I talked about a lot in conferences which I'm by the way available, but it's something that I talked about a lot is the difference in between the primacy of live where we start with a radio station that has to be live and because we've been told that has to be like for the last 30 years and the

Types of actually taking something which is an on-demand content that works great in a number of different formats and also using that on the air as well, but I think there's a very interesting things that you can do particularly if you're looking at community radio particularly if you're looking at radio with that without a large cost base and she run a service which is genuinely interesting and far more interesting than just playing you know 10 great songs in a row.

That's that's great.

You can get that from everywhere radiated a program with broadcast bionics creators of The Bionic studio listening watching reacting to and learning from every spoken word Kolo sweet and SMS to unlock the bionic studio transforms everything about radio except the way you make it.

2020 lucky Headrow Martin is with his James cridland here as well James you for a long time said at the future of radio is multi-platform.

Obviously still got a lot of listening on FM radio stations DAB seems to be growing still but slowing down a little bit of a lot of listening online, but it was the UK particular we still got quite a lot of am transmitters should we start to turn off next year medium wave yes my goodness.

I mean you know me too well as interesting am is interesting because the really isn't a one-size-fits-all argument here.

So you know I mean I mean I'm in Australia these days Australia has DAB in the capital cities 40% of Australian radio listening is either on DAB or online and search roughly weather UK was about 3 or so years ago, but also we have larger.

The country where no one lives and am is the best way of covering that and it's that we used to have some large shortwave transmitter as well and you know surprisingly listens to as well the UK isn't quite the same but I do think that the UK that there is still a place for am in some parts of the UK but probably not in London and I suppose one of the questions is to Ofcom what would happen if radio stations were to vacate their am at the moment.

My understanding is that they would have to re-advertise those as licenses which would cause is not what the individual stations want so you know so what what happens and I wonder whether Ofcom would be able to actually say ok if you want to come off at am because so few people at tuning into am then you can actually do that.

In part or in whole without without having to go out Andrea Andrea advertise this I mean absolute for example is really good case where there on 12:15 in London but they also have FM and obviously DAB as well and you know I mean certainly when I was there when it was the original version and the amount of people using the park am transmitter in London was very very low and I'm sure that if they could they would have they would turn off tomorrow, but of course if you if you turn off then that actually changes what you're allowed to end up doing with the licence.

I think it's you know again.

I really interesting a really interesting point.

What could you do there? What could you do you know gold in London on on the am probably should it should it still be there who knows and the BBC's problem with me where the most?

Local radio stations have got a medium wave frequency as well or two and the main thing.

I think people perhaps use those for his listening to different football commentaries that are different to the ones on FM on DAB so DAB needs to change so that they can have multiple football matches on at the same time I suppose for BBC local radio to carry on providing that service if they shut down the a.m.

And there's no reason why they couldn't do that now every station has 128k.

You can be easily make to 64k mono services out of that if you want to for a football match, but yeah, you know I mean I said I certainly think looking at how the BBC I believe at some stations came off.

I am now was it this year was it last year and they got no complaints whatsoever which I think goes to show how few people are actually still consuming those local stations on on the am it's an awful lot of of cast.

Turn off the light in terms of electricity turning it off might be a bad plan right what you got on your list for happening in 2020 what your main predictions we could we could sit here and say station is going to be bad in that stations can do that, which I probably will in a couple of weeks time for the actual 20-20 predictions, but I think as a general term.

I think we're going to say well run ultra local radio stations winning James mentioned Alfred there in Shaftesbury that's such a good idea.

I'm going to talk to carry chair behind and little feature on the stations it such a good idea.

I think we'll have well-run ultra local stations and national brands and that said we've over last 3-years regional stations like regional like the West Midlands got a rock station at the northwest corner jazz station Scotland got a dance stations for wherever you are in the country where you are.

You got a different type of music so getting very close to having every kind of station everywhere so the national brands which is good, but yeah, I think repeating contents especially content on local radio stations will be good and if the community radio stations can pull are often and sort that out then that'll be the one I don't see them between in in the future.

I don't know if it's going to be next year or in the long run but well run local stations with National brands.

Will be the radio landscape.

I think so, it's about small dab on This podcast lots of times over the last couple of years.

It looks like that is actually going to start happening in 2020 and they gonna start a war in some licences about doing the job with with the small scale DAB there's no reason why a commercial radio station can't return to almost every town in the country and if if there.

On a low budget if you did concentrating output rather than important don't employ 50 staff to run it.

They can probably make some money as well James what's your other big thing to watch for 2020 podcast I suppose continue to explode Don't Know You Know Podcast is really interesting and I think part of that is actually the underlying part of that in terms of how it affects radio because there are two fascinating changes that are going on 1 changes that we are listening to more speech and less music so if you look at our I believe that Americans are listening now to 20% more torque than they were 5 years ago which is quite a change and my suspicion is that that's going on in the UK as well, there's no real figures showing that but my suspicion is that we will see more consumption of a speech in all of its forms.

You know clearly drives towards podcasting but it also clearly drives towards the other side which is the amount of on-demand content that we're consuming very Regular Show a little side which I have stolen from radios MiDAS survey, which shows the the percentage of listening to live radio vs.

On Demand and Spotify and all that kind of stuff in terms of age groups because of some really interesting story going on where old people 55 + mostly listen 90% of our audio audio listening.

I'm not quite there yet is 2 live radio.

Where is if you look at young people if you look at people under the age of 24 then yes lives who is still there and about 50% of all audio listening, but there's still an awful lot of on-demand listening in there and listening to things like like a Spotify and stuff like that.

A very much I suspect that we will see as those audiences grow up.

We will see a more more on demand consumption less live radio.

I think the radio industry needs to be quite cautious in that our audiences actually literally going to die because our audience and the people who are keeping me alive and that and that you know 89% 88% weekly reach figure from Rachel is mostly around the older people.

I think that's a concern which is play any way that we can actually use on demand better that we can rethink the way that we make radio is I think going to be really interesting.

I'm I'm it's nice to see that radio broadcasters in the UK on investing in podcasting in the same way that radio broadcasters in Canada in the USSR and maybe one.

Things that will see next year is perhaps our if not global going out and buying a bunch of people who are making great podcasts and actually using those two both bolster up some of the programming that we hearing but also to earn some additional cash out of that in terms of the on-demand space to think the recently appointed a podcast editor global of the relaunch their global player app with with podcast on which English third party podcast and the BBC of course that seems to be investing quite like to podcast yeah, I mean the BBC certainly investing into podcasting again.

It's a bit of a sort of a patchwork quilt and not quite understanding where their strategy is that you know and it's the parallels in between that and the and the ABC here in Australia where the ABC is very strong and young people tuning in to to work which is kind of makes a Radio 1 and 6 mu.

And the ABC is very strong with old people and has almost no one tuning in who is sort of age between 30 and 44 and so one of the things that they didn't see women as well.

Don't actually TuneIn so one of the things that they did is Dave really heavily invested into podcasts for 30-something women and so you see a real strategy there of we're going to invest in the podcasts that will get these people tuning in and consuming ABC content that they otherwise aren't and the BBC because it's way more popular because it's got Radio 2 in there for for that age group and stuff like that.

Is is a different kettle of fish and I think that's why it's a bit harder to understand what their strategy is in terms of you know buying George the Poet and and you know the whole brexit cast staying in and everything else.

It's it's a different conversation.

I think that's ok.

There's a few things we know a definite happened in 2020 because they're in there in the diary there on the wall planner in fact we don't have an areas in 2019, but it will happen 4th of March in London and the nominations of the early into the New Year 15th of January going to be out awards and things like that.

I'll be happening as well in the spring and radiodays Europe is in March in Lisbon be there.

Yeah, I'm just looking at the predictions that we put together at 12 months ago.

One of them was that a station called podcast Radio 1 launch ok and guess, what podcast Radio will launch in 2020.

I am fascinated to see how that will do and I heard pull on the radio Today programme a couple of weeks ago Paul Chandler talking about you what their plans are for that.

It's not the first.

There's a podcasting radio station in Philadelphia and where was actually podcasting radio station back in.

1005g in San Francisco I don't think that any of them have had particular success, but I think it's a really interesting idea to actually get people again and to get people stumbling into podcasting in the future and obviously you know it's a lot of free content in some ways which you play me some people are particularly happy about but that might be an interesting way of running particularly off-peak radio stations where you actually want something.

That's a little bit different to Justin stop music again, but it's great to have you back in her podcast James we've missed you the last few weeks, so it's lovely to be here and and David Lloyd's warm-up man once again.

He's on the way he with a bumper festive edition of radio moments stay there for that himalaya today.

Maybe James could could introduce them again.

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Dot net and have a very merry Christmas Merry Christmas and welcome to our bumper edition of the year in radio not least because contracts often seem to run out of this type of you.

It's 10 years since a five live farewell.

You may have seen the odd rumour that following Terry wogan's decision to breakfast on Radio 2 Chris Evans was going to replace him that I so the rumour had it to replace Chris on drivetime on Radio 2 well these rumours 100-percent accurate and it is very very exciting to be asked to do one of Radio 2 iconic programme Simon Mayo ending his round on 5 Live afternoon.

Go to Radio 2 from where he said farewell this week last year.

I'm hanging on in here who's in the voice of losing.

I have loved every single moment never intended to go but you no circumstances change and everything will be fabulous and Radio 2 will be sparkly and Magic of those loaded comments Simon Mayo preparing for a scala future, it's also 10 years since the memorable farewell and I'm not going to pretend.

This is not a sad day you probably hear my voice.

I'm going to miss the laughter and the fun of our morning together.

I know you're going to welcome Chris Evans the same generosity of spirit as you've always shown me.

So, I'm going to miss you.

Tell me together again in February

have a Happy Christmas thank you.

Thank you for being my friend Terry Wogan and those words served him well sadly.

Just a few months later Christmas 1993 and will from a program at least at Radio 1 Christmas day tomorrow.

It's Lynn Parsons and medical mix for Christmas Eve drive time with classical music and the latest travel information the big holy Christmas music on a seasonal theme tonight.

That's nine and Pete tongs Christmas mix music reading Radio Times as he ended Radio 1 Afternoon this week.

1993 the year before that the Pops Alan Freeman Pick of the Pops on Radio 1 in the charts so I can sit and have a listen to these farewells by selling over 850000 in its first week this song gave Gareth the biggest ever chart debut.

What time we now have an extra 2 million people listening into a show which I must have been very proud of smash Hits magazine the best radio show of 1981 as you probably know regrettably I won't be in the new year, but it's the first time of the show has won the readers poll and what a lovely thing you've done to be able to leave the show when you've added number one and so glad you enjoyed it as much as I have the present and we could go on enjoy it together.

It's not to be Neil fox as well as Pepsi chart show 17 years ago Blackburn's last Radio 1 top 40 38 years ago and talking of Tony after a difficult spell he returned to the BBC three years ago Tony Blackburn's New Year's Eve

returning to Radio 2 it's 10 years this week since comedian Tom Binns made the headlines around following this Queen's Speech broadcast

Boring 2019-2010, why doesn't she speak with a normal voice and that's probably the last thing I never do before I'm fired to unban surprised to find the Queen's Christmas message saying his programme this week 10 years ago.

Merry Christmas this time of year is maybe an odd one to launch the station, but some folks have not least the most successful of the early commercial launches 73 here.

We are today after launching not a vessel that will cross the oceans too distant ports carrying Mac and ice on the labour of men's hands, but a vehicle that.

The ear carrying into countless homes words and ideas the products of men's minds and what infinitely powerful things these are cloud launching in 73 and the Radio Scotland also shows at Hogmanay launch this time in 1965 for me and indeed for all of us here for after many months of Radio Scotland is now a floating reality thanks to the skill and ingenuity of a dedicated band of radio engineers and the loyalty of our team have been able to convert to format clydebuilt lightship the Comet into one of the most modern offshore broadcasting stations in the world are simple and straightforward to provide a new exciting form of entertainment radio and to offer advertisers a new simple and economic medium.com I would rather like that last.

The end of the year also saw the final days of relaxing bird first station to play the UK in Europe and Elvis record of Buddy Holly record and it was here that you had The Beatles and the stones for the very first time they really was that but tonight we have to say goodnight to you.

I cherish listener for the final time and my boss is here Radio Luxembourg I personally would like to thank them since making my broadcasting cream a reality for the last time has been shown to Lyon 208.

Thanks for listening weekend of luxury on to 18 on a course all together in 1992.

Play Christmas station is Radio moments for the year.

Thank you for listening and huge.

Thanks to the many people who help me out with archive audio Andy Walmsley from radio jottings, and of course the truly brilliant aircheck downloads and if you let me have a box of all types in the last year.

Thank you too until 2020.

Have a wonderful Christmas happy new year and a very very Christmas and a Happy New Year to you as well.

They fit and to my guests this week Martin and James cridland a massive thanks, and thank you mostly to you for listening throughout the year some amazing numbers to some of our podcast in 2019 if you missed any of them you can find them all on your usual podcast app and search back in the food.

We have some really really good one so I didn't get chance to listen to all of them through the year and maybe use the Christmas break to catch up on.

We will be back early in the new year with another edition of the radio Today programme.

Thank you for listening and have a great Christmas and New Year music for This podcast was composed by MiKasa